Each month the model turns six market checks into one number: the share of new money it puts into equities. This page shows that output and the month it belongs to. It describes the model; it is not a personal recommendation.
Market momentum weakened and valuations became relatively more comfortable, allowing higher deployment.
Six market checks feed one monthly number. Hold means 0% of new money to equities.
Share of new money to equities in the model, Jan 2026 to Sep 2026 · Hold = 0%
Point at the chart, tap it, or focus it and use the arrow keys to read each month. Hold is drawn at 0%.
Each note is the model's own text for its month, and any figure in it (a VIX level, a Nifty fall) is from that month only.
How big the stock market is next to the size of the economy.
In the model: Market cap / GDP ratio. Signals overvaluation when above 1.1×.
Share prices compared with company earnings averaged over a business cycle.
In the model: Cyclically adjusted P/E. India-specific threshold above 25.
How much movement the options market expects in the Nifty: the market’s fear gauge.
In the model: Fear gauge. Stress threshold: 35.
Whether the Nifty is above its 20-day and 200-day average prices, and how many stocks are rising with it.
In the model: Nifty vs SMA20 and SMA200. Breadth across 1,500+ stocks.
Whether foreign and Indian institutions are buying more shares than they sell.
In the model: Net institutional flows. Persistent FII selling = bearish signal.
US interest rates, the US dollar, and whether global money is moving toward emerging markets or away.
In the model: US Fed rate trajectory, dollar index, EM risk-on/off signal.
Once a month the model reads the six checks and gives one output: Hold, or Deploy with a percentage. The model's own note for each month is under History.
Sent when a new month's signal is published. No subscription needed.
Model output only · Not a personalised recommendation · Past signals do not guarantee future results · No spam, unsubscribe anytime · SEBI INH000024143
